Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    120.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  26.4  26.4  20.8  17.1  22.3  18.1  22.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  57.0  49.0  31.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  23.6  19.4   1.7 -29.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  65.0  27.0  -8.0  18.0  11.0 117.0  48.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  73.0  77.0  78.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  10.0  -4.0  -5.0 -10.0  42.0  10.0  12.0  N  U  F  F  F VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        2.0%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%        6.9%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        3.9%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        3.6%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%        1.2%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 WP052023 230726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    120.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  26.4  26.4  20.8  17.1  22.3  18.1  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  73.0  77.0  78.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  10.0  -4.0  -5.0 -10.0  42.0  10.0  12.0  N  F  U  U  U VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%