Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    119.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  18.6  15.2  17.3  14.1  16.2  16.2  16.2  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  57.0  22.7  -6.8  24.4 -26.6 -26.6 -26.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  15.0  34.0   8.0  49.0  92.0  92.0  92.0  U  U  N  U  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  79.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0 -11.0 -11.0  16.0  15.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  F  F  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.5%       24.7%       41.1%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       12.9%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h       13.7%        8.8%       11.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 WP052023 230727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    119.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  18.6  15.2  17.3  14.1  16.2  16.2  16.2  U  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  79.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0 -11.0 -11.0  16.0  15.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  U  U  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%