Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  14.1  17.2  19.4  15.0  17.3  23.2  16.6  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.9  16.1  -6.8  11.5   5.8 -36.6 -48.0 -53.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  66.0  45.0  43.0 116.0  35.0  67.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  83.0  73.0  61.0  50.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0  -7.0  21.0  27.0  19.0   6.0   9.0  28.0 VF  F VU VU VU  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.1%       18.3%       28.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.76

 WP052023 230727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.