Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  19.4  20.9  16.8  23.1  19.2  26.7  17.6  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.4   8.8   8.1   6.9   5.6   4.4   3.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.5  29.3  21.5   6.7  -6.3 -11.7 -15.8 -24.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  43.0  39.0  38.0  83.0  62.0  -2.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  81.0  77.0  71.0  57.0  43.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  11.0  39.0  28.0   5.0   2.0  11.0  13.0  F  U VU VU  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.54

 WP052023 230728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.