Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  15.1  14.7  19.4  14.2  23.9  17.8  20.7  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  37.7  13.4   2.3  -2.7  -3.5  -2.7  -1.8 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  17.0 111.0  85.0  57.0  31.0   6.0 -17.0  U  U  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  81.0  81.0  79.0  76.0  66.0  60.0  50.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  13.0   7.0  11.0  -1.0   6.0  13.0  18.0 VU  U  N  U  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.66

 WP052023 230728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.