Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052023 230728 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 117.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 16.2 19.8 17.9 19.2 17.4 20.6 20.6 F F N F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.7 18.2 11.3 8.7 6.5 6.5 7.3 7.3 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 92.0 80.0 18.0 39.0 18.0 -11.0 -11.0 U F N U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 82.0 77.0 78.0 71.0 59.0 52.0 52.0 F F F F N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 7.0 12.0 21.0 21.0 U N U N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.66 WP052023 230728 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 117.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.