Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  25.7  26.8  32.5  28.8  22.3  18.5  22.2  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  81.0  85.0  88.0  87.0 104.0 117.0  65.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 126.0 131.0 116.0  90.0 100.0  86.0 133.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  85.0  88.0  88.0  86.0  85.0  85.0  85.0 VF  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -6.0  -2.0  -9.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0   7.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        5.0%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       28.1%       45.4%       36.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       23.4%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       21.6%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       20.5%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h       14.9%       56.1%       35.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.3%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       43.3%       39.0%       41.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       38.7%       31.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       76.4%       69.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP062023 230727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  25.7  26.8  32.5  28.8  22.3  18.5  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  85.0  88.0  88.0  86.0  85.0  85.0  85.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -6.0  -2.0  -9.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0   7.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%