Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.4  25.8  31.9  19.6  19.6  18.3  24.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  86.0  86.0  86.0 104.0 133.0  62.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 148.0 146.0  85.0 100.0  77.0 114.0 123.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       25.0%       19.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        9.7%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        8.0%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.2%       36.4%       24.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.9%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       48.2%       31.6%       39.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       25.6%       25.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       64.9%       63.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP062023 230727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.4  25.8  31.9  19.6  19.6  18.3  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%