Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  29.5  24.9  22.5   9.0  16.1  18.8  18.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  85.0  87.0  94.0  97.0  74.0  62.0  48.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0 114.0  63.0  99.0  95.0 118.0  64.0  46.0 VF  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  77.0  72.0  63.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   2.0  10.0   4.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.7%       24.2%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        9.6%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        7.8%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.7%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       46.6%       30.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.9%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       49.6%       41.9%       45.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       36.2%       30.5%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       70.1%       66.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP062023 230727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  29.5  24.9  22.5   9.0  16.1  18.8  18.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  77.0  72.0  63.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   2.0  10.0   4.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%