Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    159.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  29.5  21.6  14.1  14.1  19.8  14.5  23.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  84.0  84.0  91.0  83.0  84.0  58.0  54.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   150.0  91.0 110.0 113.0 131.0 107.0  59.0   7.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  81.0  79.0  71.0  67.0  62.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0   7.0   3.0  -5.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.6%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       29.6%       41.9%       35.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       20.3%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       18.2%       12.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       18.2%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h       33.2%       63.8%       48.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.3%       19.1%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       53.5%       52.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       49.2%       37.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       73.8%       67.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP062023 230728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    159.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  29.5  21.6  14.1  14.1  19.8  14.5  23.4  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  81.0  79.0  71.0  67.0  62.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0   7.0   3.0  -5.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%