Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062023 230728 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 135.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 152.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 23.4 12.4 15.0 20.3 17.3 17.9 19.3 U N F F N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 85.0 84.0 90.0 98.0 74.0 77.0 38.0 48.0 N N F F N N U N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 111.0 124.0 130.0 123.0 71.0 94.0 7.0 F F F F F N F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 79.0 76.0 74.0 70.0 67.0 64.0 67.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 11.0 -4.0 3.0 F N N N N U F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 33.1% 44.3% 38.7% 30kt / 24h 14.2% 23.6% 18.9% 35kt / 24h 9.2% 21.9% 15.5% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 21.9% 11.5% 45kt / 36h 30.6% 53.9% 42.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 28.5% 14.2% 55kt / 48h 49.5% 42.6% 46.0% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 32.9% 28.8% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 57.5% 59.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP062023 230728 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 135.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 152.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 23.4 12.4 15.0 20.3 17.3 17.9 19.3 F N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 79.0 76.0 74.0 70.0 67.0 64.0 67.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 11.0 -4.0 3.0 U N N N N F U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%