Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  24.1  13.7  15.4  17.5  19.1  20.8  17.3  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0 101.0 101.0  80.0  83.0  52.0  41.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 132.0 112.0 103.0 122.0  84.0  19.0 -38.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0  10.0   4.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       23.6%       32.1%       27.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       13.7%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       12.8%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       12.8%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h       29.1%       41.0%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.8%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h       47.1%       32.0%       39.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       21.5%       23.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       46.0%       53.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP062023 230728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  24.1  13.7  15.4  17.5  19.1  20.8  17.3  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0  10.0   4.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%