Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  16.6  11.4  16.9  18.2  18.3  17.0  22.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  97.0  85.0  74.0  82.0  46.0  41.0  54.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 130.0 128.0 111.0 100.0  55.0  36.0  -7.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  11.0   0.0   5.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.8%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       30.7%       25.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%       13.4%       11.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       12.2%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       12.2%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h       24.7%       34.7%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.9%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       45.4%       29.8%       37.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       16.5%       20.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       41.5%       51.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP062023 230728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  16.6  11.4  16.9  18.2  18.3  17.0  22.1  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  11.0   0.0   5.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%