Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    133.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  15.1  16.5  17.5  17.5  18.3  15.9  20.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  80.0  79.0  83.0  54.0  38.0  51.0  20.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   126.0 127.0 130.0 132.0  85.0  85.0 -33.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  67.0  62.0  65.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   8.0   7.0   1.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        4.7%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       35.7%       43.5%       39.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.4%       21.0%       19.7%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       21.0%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       21.0%       13.7%
 45kt / 36h       39.1%       43.8%       41.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.7%        8.9%
 55kt / 48h       49.0%       34.1%       41.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       19.3%       22.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.2%       36.2%       48.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP062023 230729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    133.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  15.1  16.5  17.5  17.5  18.3  15.9  20.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  67.0  62.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   8.0   7.0   1.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%