Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  17.4  12.3  17.0  18.9  17.5  20.2  18.5  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  84.0  88.0  69.0  49.0  56.0  52.0  23.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 126.0 106.0  76.0  69.0 -34.0  30.0 -19.0  F  F  F  N  N VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  70.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.9%       19.6%       20.7%
 25kt / 24h       64.9%       72.9%       68.9%
 30kt / 24h       47.8%       59.6%       53.7%
 35kt / 24h       34.3%       59.6%       46.9%
 40kt / 24h       22.1%       59.6%       40.8%
 45kt / 36h       53.3%       66.4%       59.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       44.0%       22.0%
 55kt / 48h       49.7%       49.3%       49.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       31.5%       28.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.6%       39.7%       40.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP062023 230729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  17.4  12.3  17.0  18.9  17.5  20.2  18.5  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  70.0  64.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%