Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  16.0  13.8  19.6  18.1  22.7  15.0  22.5  N  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  86.0  73.0  58.0  45.0  60.0  47.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0 118.0  85.0  61.0  15.0 -31.0 -20.0  -9.0  F  F  F  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.5%       35.9%       35.2%
 25kt / 24h       75.7%       83.1%       79.4%
 30kt / 24h       59.4%       80.1%       69.8%
 35kt / 24h       54.1%       80.1%       67.1%
 40kt / 24h       26.3%       77.9%       52.1%
 45kt / 36h       51.0%       76.6%       63.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       63.2%       31.6%
 55kt / 48h       44.3%       56.6%       50.5%
 70kt / 48h       18.9%       38.0%       28.4%
 65kt / 72h       19.5%       38.9%       29.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP062023 230729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  16.0  13.8  19.6  18.1  22.7  15.0  22.5  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%