Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.3  19.6  16.3  25.7  24.5  21.5  15.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  54.0  42.0  42.0  60.0  73.0  61.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0 101.0  31.0 -21.0  -2.0 -21.0  50.0 -16.0  N  F  N VU  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  75.0  74.0  77.0  74.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.2%       36.7%       54.0%
 25kt / 24h       63.7%       63.5%       63.6%
 30kt / 24h       63.7%       61.7%       62.7%
 35kt / 24h       63.7%       61.7%       62.7%
 40kt / 24h       46.4%       60.1%       53.2%
 45kt / 36h       62.4%       39.4%       50.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.0%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h       15.7%       12.9%       14.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP062023 230730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.3  19.6  16.3  25.7  24.5  21.5  15.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  75.0  74.0  77.0  74.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%