Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062023 230730 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 132.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.3 14.8 12.8 19.4 16.4 32.8 24.7 32.7 F F F N F U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 50.0 46.0 48.0 68.0 76.0 62.0 46.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 102.0 63.0 29.0 -29.0 -40.0 40.0 31.0 F F N N VU VU N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 69.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 3.0 -1.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 77.1% 50.2% 63.7% 25kt / 24h 73.1% 72.5% 72.8% 30kt / 24h 69.3% 72.5% 70.9% 35kt / 24h 65.9% 72.5% 69.2% 40kt / 24h 59.3% 70.0% 64.6% 45kt / 36h 90.2% 57.5% 73.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 44.7% 22.3% 55kt / 48h 23.5% 12.3% 17.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP062023 230730 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 132.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.3 14.8 12.8 19.4 16.4 32.8 24.7 32.7 U U U N U F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 69.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 3.0 -1.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%