Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    132.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  14.8  24.9  27.3  31.7  19.4  23.3  34.7  F  F  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  57.0  49.0  48.0  56.0  62.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  11.0 -14.0  -1.0 -14.0  65.0  13.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  68.0  64.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -3.0  -3.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0  -2.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.1%       37.1%       51.1%
 25kt / 24h       47.0%       43.3%       45.1%
 30kt / 24h       47.0%       39.9%       43.4%
 35kt / 24h       47.0%       39.9%       43.4%
 40kt / 24h       16.8%       37.1%       26.9%
 45kt / 36h       69.2%       25.4%       47.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP062023 230731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    132.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  14.8  24.9  27.3  31.7  19.4  23.3  34.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  68.0  64.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -3.0  -3.0   1.0  -2.0   1.0  -2.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%