Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230731 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.6  29.9  32.6  29.0  15.2  25.1  21.7  N  N  N  U  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  40.0  43.0  49.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  -5.0   1.0  25.0  40.0  35.0  23.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0   2.0   7.0  19.0   4.0  -4.0   6.0  F  N  N  N VU  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.9%        7.2%       13.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.5%        8.7%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%        5.4%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%        5.4%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        4.9%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP062023 230731 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.6  29.9  32.6  29.0  15.2  25.1  21.7  N  N  N  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0   2.0   7.0  19.0   4.0  -4.0   6.0  U  N  N  N VF  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%