Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  29.9  31.5  31.9  21.6  14.9  27.4  21.9  N  N  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  44.0  48.0  59.0  69.0  63.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   2.0  25.0  23.0  16.0  27.0  17.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   7.0   6.0   8.0   4.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%        2.6%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        3.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        1.7%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        1.6%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP062023 230731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  29.9  31.5  31.9  21.6  14.9  27.4  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   7.0   6.0   8.0   4.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.6%        4.3%