Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.0  32.5  28.7  14.6  25.5  21.2  24.5  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  53.0  61.0  66.0  59.0  47.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  25.0  24.0  41.0  35.0  23.0  12.0   3.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   6.0  16.0   3.0  -3.0   9.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.0%        2.2%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        3.6%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        1.9%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        1.8%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP062023 230731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.0  32.5  28.7  14.6  25.5  21.2  24.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   6.0  16.0   3.0  -3.0   9.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.3%        5.7%