Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    128.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  29.4  20.5  17.4  29.9  23.4  37.4  19.5  U  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  66.0  63.0  53.0  32.0  23.0  21.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0  14.0  51.0  44.0  32.0  39.0  12.0  -6.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0  -4.0  15.0  12.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  F  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        2.7%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        5.9%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        3.6%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        3.3%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP062023 230801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    128.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  29.4  20.5  17.4  29.9  23.4  37.4  19.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0  -4.0  15.0  12.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  U  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%