Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  24.8  21.2  20.7  25.6  21.9  26.4  22.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  64.0  55.0  42.0  25.0  20.0  19.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  51.0  60.0  15.0  32.0  -2.0  10.0 -22.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        0.8%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.0%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP062023 230801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  24.8  21.2  20.7  25.6  21.9  26.4  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.3%        4.6%