Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  18.8  28.9  27.4  22.0  22.5  18.3  18.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  51.0  42.0  32.0  26.0  27.0  35.0  45.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  13.0  15.0  36.0  -4.0  15.0  -2.0  -8.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0 -10.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0   8.0   8.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        3.7%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.9%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%        1.1%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP062023 230802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  18.8  28.9  27.4  22.0  22.5  18.3  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0 -10.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0   8.0   8.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%