Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  18.0  20.4  27.8  19.4  16.8  13.1  16.6  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0  21.0  20.0  21.0  26.0  45.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  25.0  15.0  12.0  19.0  24.0  11.0  -6.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -7.0  -3.0   9.0   6.0  12.0   5.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        3.0%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        7.1%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        4.4%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%        4.4%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h       21.2%        3.2%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP062023 230802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  18.0  20.4  27.8  19.4  16.8  13.1  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -7.0  -3.0   9.0   6.0  12.0   5.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%