Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  21.7  30.2  21.1  17.4  15.6  14.8  12.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  20.0  20.0  21.0  30.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  15.0  -3.0  29.0  11.0  10.0 -22.0   2.0  N  U  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -6.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  -6.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.9%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        8.5%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        5.9%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        5.9%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.4%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%        2.6%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        2.2%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP062023 230803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  21.7  30.2  21.1  17.4  15.6  14.8  12.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -6.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  -6.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%