Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  27.7  21.5  18.6  21.5   9.0  16.1  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  20.0  21.0  24.0  44.0  57.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   6.0  24.0  11.0  10.0  41.0 -18.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -7.0   1.0  12.0   7.0  -1.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        6.9%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        4.4%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        4.3%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%        1.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP062023 230803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  27.7  21.5  18.6  21.5   9.0  16.1  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -7.0   1.0  12.0   7.0  -1.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%