Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  24.9  16.8  19.7  17.7  14.0  19.7  18.5  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  23.0  24.0  34.0  50.0  43.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  44.0  19.0  -7.0  25.0  -1.0 -10.0 -47.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  76.0  74.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   1.0   0.0  13.0  10.0   5.0  -3.0   0.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.5%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%        9.7%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%        6.4%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%        6.4%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.4%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%        2.7%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 WP062023 230803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  24.9  16.8  19.7  17.7  14.0  19.7  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  76.0  74.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   1.0   0.0  13.0  10.0   5.0  -3.0   0.0  U  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%