Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  17.0  17.6  18.5  14.8  17.5  16.4  15.8  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  22.0  25.0  44.0  54.0  46.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  11.0  -3.0 -15.0  33.0 -20.0 -35.0 -30.0  N  U  U  U  N VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0  11.0   5.0  13.0   3.0  12.0   0.0  F  N  U  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        0.6%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 WP062023 230803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  17.0  17.6  18.5  14.8  17.5  16.4  15.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0  11.0   5.0  13.0   3.0  12.0   0.0  U  N  F  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%