Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  17.2  18.9  15.5  19.6  14.4  13.7   9.3  F  F  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  22.0  31.0  47.0  41.0  33.0  36.0  46.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        104.3 104.3 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -26.0  -7.0  18.0 -16.0  -8.0 -20.0   7.0  U VU  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   0.0   3.0   4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        8.3%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.5%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        4.4%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        3.2%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        4.7%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        2.7%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 WP062023 230804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  17.2  18.9  15.5  19.6  14.4  13.7   9.3  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   0.0   3.0   4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%