Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.3  14.9  11.7  19.9  17.2  11.6  15.8  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  36.0  50.0  50.0  43.0  44.0  43.0  44.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        104.3 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  11.0  33.0  20.0  12.0  -2.0  -4.0  18.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   0.0   8.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       13.3%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        7.4%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%        7.4%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        7.4%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%        5.3%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        6.6%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%        4.0%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP062023 230804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.3  14.9  11.7  19.9  17.2  11.6  15.8  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   0.0   8.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%