Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.1  10.7  17.1  19.7  14.5  14.6  12.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  59.0  55.0  48.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  33.0  20.0   1.0  15.0  -9.0  12.0 -24.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   4.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0  U  N  U  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.2%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       14.8%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        7.6%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        7.6%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        7.6%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%        6.8%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        7.7%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        1.3%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%        5.7%        8.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 WP062023 230804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.1  10.7  17.1  19.7  14.5  14.6  12.3  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   4.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%