Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  10.7  17.1  18.0  18.0  13.9  10.1  15.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  49.0  43.0  38.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        109.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -1.0 -22.0  -4.0  -8.0   7.0 -35.0  19.0  U  U VU  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   0.0  -4.0   5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.0%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       14.4%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        7.7%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%        7.7%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.7%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%        7.2%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        8.2%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.5%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.6%        6.2%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 WP062023 230805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  10.7  17.1  18.0  18.0  13.9  10.1  15.2  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   0.0  -4.0   5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%