Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  20.2  18.1  16.6  17.6  11.8  13.7  15.2  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  43.0  38.0  39.0  36.0  40.0  40.0  21.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -26.0  17.0  19.0   7.0  14.0 -17.0  30.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   2.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        5.5%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       23.6%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.3%       14.6%       13.4%
 35kt / 24h       12.3%       14.6%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       14.6%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       13.7%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       13.2%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        3.1%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        9.0%        9.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP062023 230805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  20.2  18.1  16.6  17.6  11.8  13.7  15.2  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   2.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%