Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  18.8  16.5  17.7  17.0  10.0  12.1  11.3  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  38.0  35.0  30.0  35.0  42.0  35.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   1.0   3.0 -23.0   2.0 -20.0  13.0  21.0  U  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -5.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        3.9%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       17.0%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%        9.5%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.9%        9.5%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        9.5%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%        9.5%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%       10.7%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        2.5%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%        8.6%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP062023 230805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  18.8  16.5  17.7  17.0  10.0  12.1  11.3  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -5.0  -1.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%