Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062023 230805 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 128.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 15.9 17.5 17.1 13.3 12.1 14.2 12.7 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 41.0 38.0 34.0 39.0 47.0 44.0 43.0 U N U U U N N N Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -5.0 -8.0 -14.0 10.0 -11.0 31.0 64.0 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 67.0 67.0 66.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 -6.0 4.0 -4.0 3.0 N N N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.1% 5.5% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 8.6% 21.0% 14.8% 30kt / 24h 8.6% 12.3% 10.5% 35kt / 24h 8.3% 12.3% 10.3% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 12.3% 7.1% 45kt / 36h 12.3% 11.6% 11.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 9.9% 12.1% 11.0% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 65kt / 72h 8.5% 8.8% 8.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.06 WP062023 230805 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 128.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 15.9 17.5 17.1 13.3 12.1 14.2 12.7 U U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 67.0 67.0 66.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 -6.0 4.0 -4.0 3.0 N N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%