Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  14.4  22.8  24.1  15.4  16.9  11.9  13.6  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  26.0  24.0  25.0  35.0  42.0  14.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -13.0 -15.0  -5.0 -18.0   6.0   3.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        4.0%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       14.5%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        7.6%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        7.6%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.6%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%        7.3%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        7.4%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%        5.5%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP062023 230806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  14.4  22.8  24.1  15.4  16.9  11.9  13.6  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%