Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  14.7  16.3  13.1  12.7  11.0  12.4  17.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  33.0  36.0  39.0  46.0  40.0  25.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -30.0 -19.0  15.0 -13.0  -4.0  29.0  60.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.5%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       18.5%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       10.9%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%       10.9%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.9%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       11.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.6%       13.3%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        2.8%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       14.2%        9.1%       11.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP062023 230806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  14.7  16.3  13.1  12.7  11.0  12.4  17.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%