Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.9  16.3  17.0  15.9  15.6   8.1  20.2  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  33.0  38.0  49.0  45.0  50.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   9.0   8.0 -11.0  15.0  -6.0  29.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        4.4%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       20.6%       14.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       12.6%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       12.6%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       12.6%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%       12.1%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%       11.8%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        2.8%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%        8.7%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP062023 230806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.9  16.3  17.0  15.9  15.6   8.1  20.2  U  U  U  N  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%