Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.2  14.9  17.9  12.0  10.8  20.5  24.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  38.0  43.0  43.0  31.0  11.0  23.0  27.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   1.0 -10.0 -11.0  10.0  11.0  51.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   6.0   0.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        7.6%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%       30.5%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       20.8%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       20.8%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       20.8%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       20.9%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.5%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%       19.5%       15.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        5.3%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h       12.2%        9.7%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP062023 230806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.90    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.2  14.9  17.9  12.0  10.8  20.5  24.7  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   6.0   0.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%