Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  14.3  13.1  14.8  10.9  11.7  20.3  32.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  44.0  49.0  50.0  43.0  38.0  20.0   9.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0   4.0  -7.0   6.0  -6.0  67.0  71.0 101.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  46.0  41.0  N  N  U  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  10.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        7.3%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       33.8%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       23.6%       18.4%
 35kt / 24h       13.3%       23.6%       18.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       23.6%       12.6%
 45kt / 36h       16.3%       25.0%       20.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.8%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h       18.9%       24.9%       21.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        7.4%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%       11.2%       17.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP062023 230807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  14.3  13.1  14.8  10.9  11.7  20.3  32.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  46.0  41.0  N  N  F  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  10.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%