Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062023 230807 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 15.7 13.1 10.3 8.2 20.5 28.9 34.2 F F F F VF N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 34.0 21.0 17.0 1.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -5.0 9.0 -21.0 26.0 48.0 60.0 59.0 U U U VU U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 59.0 56.0 54.0 48.0 45.0 34.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 25kt / 24h 10.2% 25.7% 18.0% 30kt / 24h 10.2% 16.3% 13.2% 35kt / 24h 10.2% 16.3% 13.2% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 16.3% 8.9% 45kt / 36h 16.6% 18.6% 17.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.0% 3.5% 55kt / 48h 13.6% 15.6% 14.6% 70kt / 48h 5.7% 4.0% 4.8% 65kt / 72h 13.3% 5.2% 9.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 WP062023 230807 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 15.7 13.1 10.3 8.2 20.5 28.9 34.2 U U U U VU N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 59.0 56.0 54.0 48.0 45.0 34.0 N N F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -2.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%