Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  11.4  10.9  10.4  18.0  18.6  24.5   8.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  43.0  39.0  36.0  20.0  10.0   0.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  92.4  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  12.0  -3.0  37.0  99.0  61.0  67.0  17.0  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  47.0  41.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   9.0   6.0  10.0   4.0  12.0  16.0   2.0  N  U  N  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        4.4%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       26.1%       16.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       15.4%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       15.3%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       15.3%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       18.4%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.3%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.1%       15.9%       15.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        3.4%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h       19.8%        5.3%       12.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP062023 230807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  11.4  10.9  10.4  18.0  18.6  24.5   8.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  47.0  41.0  37.0  N  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   9.0   6.0  10.0   4.0  12.0  16.0   2.0  N  F  N  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%