Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.2  10.7  12.4  12.4  23.1  25.1  11.7  10.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  36.0  33.0  27.0  13.0   2.0   8.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 112.9  86.0  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -3.0  41.0  45.0  90.0  81.0 -11.0  -3.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  50.0  43.0  33.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  10.0   7.0  13.0  16.0   4.0  -4.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%       11.3%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        5.6%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.8%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        7.1%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        6.9%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.2%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       20.2%        3.6%       11.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP062023 230808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.2  10.7  12.4  12.4  23.1  25.1  11.7  10.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  50.0  43.0  33.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  10.0   7.0  13.0  16.0   4.0  -4.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%