Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  15.0  11.8  17.4  20.9  23.2  13.6  12.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  33.0  27.0  27.0  11.0   0.0  18.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  89.8  93.5  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  42.0  55.0  79.0  76.0  20.0 -68.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  49.0  39.0  35.0  36.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  13.0   4.0   9.0  17.0  11.0   1.0   4.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        4.1%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       27.3%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%       16.3%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       15.9%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%       15.9%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       17.6%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.3%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        9.0%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        2.4%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%        4.5%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP062023 230808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  15.0  11.8  17.4  20.9  23.2  13.6  12.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  49.0  39.0  35.0  36.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  13.0   4.0   9.0  17.0  11.0   1.0   4.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%