Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  11.0  17.9  21.1  22.7  17.0   9.8  13.1  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  26.0  27.0  13.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 105.1  84.8  88.5  81.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  38.0  60.0  93.0 117.0 -24.0  -8.0  39.0  N  N  N  F  F VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  47.0  34.0  33.0  41.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   5.0  10.0  13.0  20.0   6.0   1.0   8.0  U  N  U  U VU  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.5%       16.0%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       28.3%       49.7%       39.0%
 30kt / 24h       26.8%       38.2%       32.5%
 35kt / 24h       26.8%       38.2%       32.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%       38.2%       21.0%
 45kt / 36h       21.6%       38.0%       29.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.3%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%       13.8%       11.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        6.4%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       14.7%        9.1%       11.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP062023 230808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  11.0  17.9  21.1  22.7  17.0   9.8  13.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  47.0  34.0  33.0  41.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   5.0  10.0  13.0  20.0   6.0   1.0   8.0  F  N  F  F VF  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%