Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  18.6  21.3  19.6  19.3  11.9  15.3  19.6  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  27.0  10.0  12.0   0.0  10.0  13.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  83.5  76.2  78.0  64.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  58.0  82.0  84.0  22.0 -11.0   4.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  53.0  53.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  54.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0  22.0  18.0  18.0   2.0  12.0  11.0  U  N VU VU VU  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.3%       18.1%       17.7%
 25kt / 24h       34.8%       52.5%       43.7%
 30kt / 24h       27.9%       41.6%       34.7%
 35kt / 24h       27.9%       41.6%       34.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       41.6%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       19.6%       32.7%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.4%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       12.2%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%        5.5%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        4.3%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP062023 230808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  18.6  21.3  19.6  19.3  11.9  15.3  19.6  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  53.0  53.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  54.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0  22.0  18.0  18.0   2.0  12.0  11.0  F  N VF VF VF  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%