Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  19.7  22.2  23.4  13.5  15.7  18.8  21.7  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  24.0  13.0   4.0  12.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 100.1  78.0  76.2  47.9  13.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  74.0  62.0  80.0  -5.0 -20.0  15.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  36.0  39.0  52.0  60.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%       10.3%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       21.3%       35.6%       28.4%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       24.3%       19.8%
 35kt / 24h       15.3%       24.3%       19.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       24.3%       13.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       18.1%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.1%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        6.4%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        2.8%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP062023 230809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  19.7  22.2  23.4  13.5  15.7  18.8  21.7  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  36.0  39.0  52.0  60.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%