Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  26.8  30.4  13.5  14.9  13.9  16.7  30.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  14.0   7.0  21.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0  84.4  69.4  73.0  66.0  44.2  26.8  37.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  47.0  28.0 -22.0  10.0  27.0  42.0  22.0  N  N  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  50.0  46.0  39.0  41.0  56.0  61.0  61.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  12.0  11.0   8.0   0.0   9.0  13.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        3.2%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        8.1%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        4.0%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%        4.0%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        4.7%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 WP062023 230809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  26.8  30.4  13.5  14.9  13.9  16.7  30.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  50.0  46.0  39.0  41.0  56.0  61.0  61.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  12.0  11.0   8.0   0.0   9.0  13.0   7.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%